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The measure of an economy is
money.
A large
economy needs a larger supply of
money
than does a small
economy.
Therefore, a growing economy needs a growing supply of
money.
All
money
is a form of debt.
Therefore, a growing economy requires a growing supply of debt.
U. S. Federal Debt is the safest, most controllable form of debt. The federal government, alone among borrowers, never will default.
Thus, there is no
federal debt or deficit problem, and a
balanced federal budget leads to a
recession or a depression.
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“There is . . . no historical data to demonstrate that a balanced budget enhances gross domestic product or any other indicator of economic productivity . . . On six consecutive occasions from 1817 until 1930, when government cut spending considerably without simultaneously seeking to stimulate the economy with equally deep tax cuts . . . depressions arose.” Michael Johns, The World and I, April 1996 “If we choose wisely, we can pay down the debt, deal with the retirement of the Baby Boomers, invest more in our future and provide tax relief.” President Clinton, January 18, 2001. [The recession began shortly afterward, only to end with the Bush federal budget deficits. As a result of those deficits, the economy grew.] Had anyone in 1980 announced that in sixteen years the U.S. federal debt would increase more than 500%, most experts would have predicted rampant inflation, depression, default on debt and the destruction of the world's financial system. Experts in 1980 would have used the same arguments they now use when they bemoan the current federal budget deficit and debt. They would have been the first to demand a federal surplus. Yet: 1) The federal debt rose more than 500% in sixteen years. 2) We did not have rampant inflation. Our inflation was as modest as the Federal Reserve wanted it to be. 3) We did not experience a depression, a default or the destruction of the world financial system. Our economy grew massively, along with federal deficits. 4) To legislate a balanced federal budget is to legislate against the creation of money. 5) Our economy today, being larger and stronger than it was sixteen years ago, has and must have more money than it did then. What would our economy be today if we had eliminated the federal budget deficit sixteen years ago? We would have had a depression, for lack of money. Federal surpluses have been associated with every depression in American history. (See below.)
The Current Solutions Aren't Working. Are You Ready To Consider A Different Approach?When any organization -- a company, a government, an athletic team, etc. -- achieves success or failure, its leaders receive the credit or the blame. In America, we are led by politicians, academics who influence the politicians and the news media that influence public beliefs.As this is written, in year 2008, many problems beset the American economy: Since 1980 we have had four recessions and are on the cusp of a fifth. We have had a Savings & Loan crisis, the failures of many banks including one of the nation's largest (IndyMac) and serious problems at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Repeatedly, we hear dire predictions about the futures of Social Security and Medicare. The U.S. Census Bureau reported, "The percentage (of people) without health insurance increased from 15.3 percent in 2005 to 15.8 percent in 2006, and the number of uninsured increased from 44.8 million to 47.0 million." The Census Bureau also reported, "In 2006, 36.5 million people (lived) in poverty." The federal tax code has become increasingly byzantine, unfair and onerous. Federal Highway Administration's 2006 "Status of the Nation's Highways, Bridges, and Transit: 2006 Conditions and Performance" indicates that much of our infrastructure is crumbling. Our elementary schools and high schools are in crisis; our colleges are too expensive to the middle class. We are in an oil crisis. Our leaders are to blame. The buck stops with them. Clearly, they are doing something wrong, and the only way to correct these problems is to change what the leaders are doing. And the only way to change what they are doing is to change what they believe. Otherwise, they will continue to do the same things again and again, and we will continue to have the same problems, again and again. All of the above problems stem from one incorrect belief. It is a belief so powerful that even substantial evidence to the contrary is ignored out of hand. It is a belief that paralyzes all attempts at solution to these myriad problems. Without that belief all of these problems easily could be solved.. The belief is this: "Federal debt already is too high, and should not be allowed to grow substantially." Virtually everyone believes it. Our politicians, many academics and the media believe it. You believe it. You never hear or read anything to the contrary. It simply is assumed to be true, without discussion or debate. To solve an intractable problem, sometimes we must ask ourselves, "What if we assume something different from what we already believe?" What if stomach ulcers were really not caused by stress? What if Newton was wrong about gravity? What if time is not uniform throughout the universe? What if empty space neither is empty nor space? What if the federal debt were too low and should grow substantially? Is the thought so obviously and outrageously wrong it should not even be contemplated or discussed? Are we so positive, based on what our leaders have told us, that we don't even want to imagine about anything to the contrary? Think of the possibilities: If the federal debt were too low and made to grow substantially: –We could eliminate all trecessions. –We could eliminate bank failures –We could make sure our elderly never lack for support –We could provide free health care for everyone –We could eliminate poverty. –We could eliminate federal taxes –We could restore our infrastructure –We could improve our lower education and provide college for anyone who wanted it. –We could create alternative sources of energy and never worry about the supply of oil If -- just if -- we could accomplish all these heretofore impossible results, merely by changing one belief, would it be worthwhile at least to explore this belief with an open mind? Or are our minds so locked, so closed, so rigid, even these wonderful results are not worth the effort of thought? That is the question FREE MONEY would like to explore with you. What Would A Federal Budget Deficit
Solution"
(i.e. a Surplus) Accomplish?
With a surplus, the U.S. government spends less than it receives. On net, the government destroys
money
and eliminates the Federal Budget Deficit.With no federal budget deficit, the total real value of existing money declines due to inflation. If our economy contained $5 trillion dollars tomorrow and forever, even the most minuscule inflation would cause those $5 trillion to have a real worth of less than $5 trillion. With an inflation of only 2%, those $5 trillion would be worth, in constant dollars, $4.9 trillion in one year. After sixteen years, our economy would contain only $3.6 trillion in constant dollars. We are geared to inflation. Experts feel a small amount of inflation creates the beneficial illusion that salaries and real-estate values are increasing. If the real value of all the money in our economy declined, the entire economy would decline, and in a short time, we would enter a depression. It happened in the Great Depression. Workers lost their jobs. Businesses lost their profits. The value of real estate plunged -- all this from a federal surplus. Taxes result from salaries, business profits and real estate holdings. A recession or depression causes tax collection to decline. If the federal government were not allowed to create money via a federal budget deficit, it could not pay its bills as tax revenues declined. The government would be forced to increase tax rates, which further would destroy our economy. The federal government would go bankrupt, thanks to its balanced budget. A federal surplus will be even worse.
Just to stand still we need a $16 trillion dollar debt in 2010. Anything less requires that we have a recession or a comparable increase in non federal debt. As our population grows and ages, many more people will require Social Security and Medicare payments. We have had a long period of relative peace and the end of the cold war. Though these conditions have allowed for a reduction in military spending, the situation will change. It is unlikely the government will be able to limit its expenditures and to accomplish no more in future years than it does now. Can the Economy Grow If the Federal Budget Deficit, and Then the Federal Debt, Shrink?Stop and Think: A shrinking federal debt reduces the amount of money the federal government creates. Can the economy grow if the federal debt shrinks?For about twenty years after World War II, the federal budget deficit averaged $0, so the federal debt remained flat, decreasing in certain years, while increasing in others. Yet the economy grew. Question: How was this possible? Answer: Federal debt is one part of total debt. At the end of World War II (1945) federal debt amounted to about 62% of total debt. We also had consumer debt, business debt and non federal (state, county, city, park district, school board, etc.) debt. During the post World War II period, non federal debt rose substantially. Twenty years after World War II, federal debt amounted to only 26% of total debt. The rise in total debt supported the growing economy. Graphs showing average annual changes in total debt and Gross Domestic Product reveal that the two tend to move together. The Best Solution to the Federal Budget Deficit ProblemThe best solution is to eliminate the federal budget deficit and debt altogether, not by paying the debt down, but by ending the government practice of borrowing.The government does not need to borrow money, because the government has the unlimited ability to create money without borrowing. The process would be:
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